Warren’s Buffet Watch – I will also stay by the sideline until I see clearer signals

One of the worst ways to trade shares for investments is to follow the crowd and duplicate what others are doing without consideration of what their goals and time horizon, being a speculator you will lose even your capital 99% of the time, better do you own research and determine your goals and time horizon and stick to your plan, never liquidate until your goals are met, there is always another opportunity to make money just as you are assured the next bus will come in, just you do not know how long you need to wait. Every businessman knows you cannot win all the time in every bet so as long as you win 7 out of 10 means you make money same as the mentality of a banker, but with mortgage insurance you win 10 out of 10 and that is a great business model. Contributed by Oogle.

(Almost) everyone’s a critic

Warren Buffett has been the subject of some negative headlines after he admitted making a multi-billion dollar mistake on airline stocks and revealing that Berkshire Hathaway didn’t do much buying amid the stock market carnage in March prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

It doesn’t help that Berkshire’s stock has been lagging the S&P, especially in the last few weeks. (See “Berkshire Stock Watch” below)

In a follow-up to last week’s “end of the Warren Buffett era” column, MarketWatch, Howard Gold calculates Berkshire lost a total of at least $7 billion on the airlines (AmericanDeltaSouthwestUnited), and two other big investments, Kraft Heinz and Occidental Petroleum.

He asks, “After all these mishaps and losses, who would want to bet a single share of Berkshire Hathaway stock that Warren Buffett is going to return to his former glory?”

Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, speaks to the press as he arrives at the 2019 annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, May 4, 2019. Photo: JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images

Markets Insider notes that Smead Capital Management’s Tony Scherrer blogged his disappointment that several times during the annual meeting, Buffett recommended S&P index funds.

Scherrer argues that since AppleAmazonAlphabet (Google)Facebook, and Microsoft account for a fifth of the index’s weighting, Buffett “didn’t shy folks away from today’s glamour tech stocks which require more and more capital,” the same kind of company that Buffett called “gruesome” in his 2007 letter. (Buffett specifically cited airlines in the “gruesome” paragraph.)

“It looks to us like Buffett needs to listen to Buffett again. He is forgetting what gruesome looks like by fawning on the index and some ‘obvious’ winners of today.”

Even Kremlin-backed RT is looking at “What went wrong with Warren Buffett.”

There is at least one defender.

MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert writes that while “there may be other reasons besides his recent performance to question whether Buffett has lost his touch,” anyone giving up on Berkshire’s stock because its been underperforming the S&P 500, “should step back and give Buffett the benefit of the doubt.”

His work tracking investment newsletter portfolios finds that “even among those newsletters that beat the market over the entire time they have been tracked, they lose money one out of every four years, on average.”

Hulbert cites the “role of randomness” in year-to-year returns, referring to a study that found “because of luck,” even long-term winning strategies will sometimes produce sub-market results

Author: Gilbert Tan TS

IT expert with more than 20 years experience in Multiple OS, Security, Data & Internet , Interests include AI and Big Data, Internet and multimedia. An experienced Real Estate agent, Insurance agent, and a Futures trader. I am capable of finding any answers in the world you want as long as there are reports available online for me to do my own research to bring you closest to all the unsolved mysteries in this world, because I can find all the paths to the Truth, and what the Future holds. All I need is to observe, test and probe to research on anything I want, what you need to do will take months to achieve, all I need is a few hours.​

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